Terminal | FX Regime Lab

DXY · US10Y · VIX · WTI

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System integrity verified: 2026-05-25

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[RESEARCH ONLY] For research purposes only. These regime classifications are derived from a deterministic 3-layer signal framework and validated out-of-sample. Not investment advice. Past calibration metrics do not guarantee future performance.

Cross-Asset Context

Live market proxies

VIX

Awaiting data

DXY

Awaiting data

BRENT

Awaiting data

GOLD

Awaiting data

COPPER

Awaiting data

STOXX

Awaiting data

US10Y

Awaiting data

Pair Macro

BoJ Rate

0.73

India VIX

17.91

ECB BS

6179.18

Bund-BTP

-0.74

USD/JPY — RVOL ELEVATEDUSD/JPY — COT EXTREMEUSD/JPY — RATE DIVERGENCEUSD/INR — RATE DIVERGENCE

Macro Calendar — High Impact

US CPI YoY

EURUSD, USDINR, USDJPY

US GDP Advance

EURUSD, USDINR, USDJPY

Systemic Regime Monitor

EUR/USD

Updated 1d agoACC:0.0%-0.14%

1.1602

Data LineageSourceMarket data (Bloomberg / Refinitiv)Raw Value1.1602TransformationSpot mid-price, no smoothingLast Update2026-05-23

GROWTH SURPRISE USD

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw ValueGROWTH_SURPRISE_USDTransformationWeighted composite → regime classifier (pair-specific: RATE 30–45%, COT 10–25%, VOL 20%, OI 5%, SPECIAL 5–20%, FPI 0–15%)Last Update2026-05-23

Layer 1 — Regime Gate

GROWTH SURPRISE USD

Layer 2 — Directional

RATE

NEUTRAL

Data LineageSourceCentral bank policy rates (2Y yield spread)Raw ValueNEUTRALTransformationRate diff → z-score → directional thresholdLast Update2026-05-23

COT

Data LineageSourceCFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)Raw Value73.7%TransformationNet non-commercial position → 52-week percentileLast Update2026-05-23

COMP

0.55

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw Value0.546TransformationWeighted sum of normalized signals (pair-specific precision weights, see methodology)Last Update2026-05-23

RVOL

4.51

Data LineageSourceMarket realized volatilityRaw Value4.51%Transformation20-day annualized realized vol (%)Last Update2026-05-23

RR 25D

-1.35

Data LineageSourceFX options market (25-delta risk reversal)Raw Value-1.35Transformation25D RR quote → skew sentiment indicatorLast Update2026-05-23

SKEW

Data LineageSourceFX options market (skew term structure)Raw Value0TransformationCross-tenor skew comparison → alignment scoreLast Update2026-05-23

Layer 3 — Execution

ENTRY

WAIT

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw ValueWAITTransformationSignal composite + vol regime → entry timing recommendationLast Update2026-05-23

RVOL RANK

Data LineageSourceMarket realized volatilityRaw Value0 / 100Transformation20-day RVOL percentile rank across 90-day historyLast Update2026-05-23

CONF

47%

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw Value47.0%TransformationSignal dispersion → confidence score (0–1)Last Update2026-05-23

COT positioning is the primary driver

USD/JPY

Updated 1d agoACC:25.0%+0.14%

159.19

Data LineageSourceMarket data (Bloomberg / Refinitiv)Raw Value159.1900TransformationSpot mid-price, no smoothingLast Update2026-05-23

RISK ON DOLLAR OFF

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw ValueRISK_ON_DOLLAR_OFFTransformationWeighted composite → regime classifier (pair-specific: RATE 30–45%, COT 10–25%, VOL 20%, OI 5%, SPECIAL 5–20%, FPI 0–15%)Last Update2026-05-23

Layer 1 — Regime Gate

RISK ON DOLLAR OFF

11D

Layer 2 — Directional

RATE

BEARISH

Data LineageSourceCentral bank policy rates (2Y yield spread)Raw ValueBEARISHTransformationRate diff → z-score → directional thresholdLast Update2026-05-23

COT

Data LineageSourceCFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)Raw Value0.0%TransformationNet non-commercial position → 52-week percentileLast Update2026-05-23

COMP

-0.93

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw Value-0.933TransformationWeighted sum of normalized signals (pair-specific precision weights, see methodology)Last Update2026-05-23

RVOL

9.90

Data LineageSourceMarket realized volatilityRaw Value9.90%Transformation20-day annualized realized vol (%)Last Update2026-05-23

RR 25D

2.97

Data LineageSourceFX options market (25-delta risk reversal)Raw Value2.97Transformation25D RR quote → skew sentiment indicatorLast Update2026-05-23

SKEW

Data LineageSourceFX options market (skew term structure)Raw Value0TransformationCross-tenor skew comparison → alignment scoreLast Update2026-05-23

Layer 3 — Execution

ENTRY

WAIT

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw ValueWAITTransformationSignal composite + vol regime → entry timing recommendationLast Update2026-05-23

RVOL RANK

Data LineageSourceMarket realized volatilityRaw Value1 / 100Transformation20-day RVOL percentile rank across 90-day historyLast Update2026-05-23

CONF

52%

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw Value52.0%TransformationSignal dispersion → confidence score (0–1)Last Update2026-05-23

Rate differential is the primary driver

USD/INR

Updated 1d agoACC:18.2%-0.53%

95.6900

Data LineageSourceMarket data (Bloomberg / Refinitiv)Raw Value95.6900TransformationSpot mid-price, no smoothingLast Update2026-05-23

INR APPRECIATION MODERATE

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw ValueINR_APPRECIATION_MODERATETransformationWeighted composite → regime classifier (pair-specific: RATE 30–45%, COT 10–25%, VOL 20%, OI 5%, SPECIAL 5–20%, FPI 0–15%)Last Update2026-05-23

Layer 1 — Regime Gate

INR APPRECIATION MODERATE

Layer 2 — Directional

RATE

BEARISH

Data LineageSourceCentral bank policy rates (2Y yield spread)Raw ValueBEARISHTransformationRate diff → z-score → directional thresholdLast Update2026-05-23

COT

N/A

Data LineageSourceCFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)TransformationNet non-commercial position → 52-week percentileLast Update2026-05-23

COMP

-0.93

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw Value-0.931TransformationWeighted sum of normalized signals (pair-specific precision weights, see methodology)Last Update2026-05-23

RVOL

5.95

Data LineageSourceMarket realized volatilityRaw Value5.95%Transformation20-day annualized realized vol (%)Last Update2026-05-23

RR 25D

-1.79

Data LineageSourceFX options market (25-delta risk reversal)Raw Value-1.79Transformation25D RR quote → skew sentiment indicatorLast Update2026-05-23

SKEW

Data LineageSourceFX options market (skew term structure)Raw Value0TransformationCross-tenor skew comparison → alignment scoreLast Update2026-05-23

FPI (Cr)

—

Data LineageSourceFPI flow data (India only)TransformationWeekly FPI net flow → INR CroresLast Update2026-05-23

Layer 3 — Execution

ENTRY

WAIT

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw ValueWAITTransformationSignal composite + vol regime → entry timing recommendationLast Update2026-05-23

RVOL RANK

Data LineageSourceMarket realized volatilityRaw Value1 / 100Transformation20-day RVOL percentile rank across 90-day historyLast Update2026-05-23

CONF

52%

Data LineageSourceFX Regime Lab model v3Raw Value52.4%TransformationSignal dispersion → confidence score (0–1)Last Update2026-05-23

Mixed signals — no single dominant factor

Macro Regime Dispatch

2026-05-24

The global FX macro summary indicates a strong US dollar, with a dollar dominance percentage of 66.67. The Polymarket odds suggest a low probability of the Fed decreasing interest rates by 50+ bps or 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting, with probabilities of 0.55% and 1.05% respectively. This aligns with the current growth surprise regime in the US dollar, with the market pricing in a strong US eco...

DOLLAR DOMINANCE67%

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