[RESEARCH ONLY] For research purposes only. These regime classifications are derived from a deterministic 3-layer signal framework and validated out-of-sample. Not investment advice. Past calibration metrics do not guarantee future performance.
← REGIME RESEARCH TERMINAL
STALE · 2515m
[ DATA STALE · 2515m OLD ]
Source: USDJPY desk · Last update: 2026-05-23T07:37:34
SPOT PRICE
159.19
+0.14% today
CONFIDENCE
52%
SIGNAL COMPOSITE
-0.93
BEAR -2BULL +2
DIRECTIONAL BIASBEARISH
DRIVERRate differential is the primary driver
MARCUS INVALIDATION159.9860
RISK FLAGS
RVOL ELEVATEDCOT EXTREMERATE DIVERGENCE
SPOT PRICE (30D)2026-03-30 → 2026-05-08
SIGNAL DECOMPOSITIONWEIGHTED COMPOSITE
RATE 40%
COT 20%
VOL 25%
OI 5%
SPECIAL 10%
REGIME FACTORS:RATE: BEARISHCOT: BEARISHVOL: ELEVATEDCOT: EXTREME LOW2026-05-22
T+5 CAL
47%
T+5 BRIER
0.242
T+5 SHARPE
0.01
T+20 CAL
48%
T+20 BRIER
0.246
HYPOTHETICAL — BACKTEST PARAMETERS
ENTRY
WAIT
RVOL RANK
1
SIGNALS TABLE
| SIGNAL | VALUE | SCORE | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate differential 2Y | 1.56 | 2.09 | ↑ |
| COT net position pctile | 0 | -3.00 | ↓ |
| Realized vol 20d | 9.90 | 2.90 | ↑ |
| Realized vol 5d | 1.30 | — | — |
| Implied vol 30d | — | — | — |
| Signal composite | -0.93 | -0.93 | ↓ |
| Risk reversal 25d | 2.97 | — | — |
| COT net position | -61825 | — | — |
| COT asset mgr net | -41886 | — | — |
| COT lev money net | -64945 | — | — |
| BoJ Policy Rate | 0.73 | — | — |
| OI Delta | 34531.00 | — | — |
| Structural Instability | NO | — | — |
| Spot | 159.19 | — | — |
PRIMARY DRIVERRate differential is the primary driver
SPECIAL FACTORVIX + JPY Funding Stress: 0.99
VALIDATION HISTORY (LAST 20)
| DATE | PRED | T+5 OUT | T+5 RET | T+5 BRIER | T+20 OUT | T+20 RET | T+20 BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | ✗ WRONG | +22.3 | 0.346 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | — | ✗ WRONG | +27.4 | 0.343 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | — | ✗ WRONG | +36.9 | 0.342 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-13 | — | ✗ WRONG | +67.1 | 0.335 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | — | ✗ WRONG | +86.5 | 0.336 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | — | ✗ WRONG | +102.7 | 0.335 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | — | ✗ WRONG | +120.7 | 0.336 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | NEUTRAL | +0.0 | 0.001 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | ✗ WRONG | +7.2 | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -67.2 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -36.5 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | — | ✗ WRONG | -14.4 | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -22.8 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -232.2 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -118.2 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -136.7 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -172.6 | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | — | ✓ CORRECT | -174.9 | 0.281 | ✓ CORRECT | -34.4 | 0.281 |
| 2026-04-23 | — | ✗ WRONG | +43.5 | 0.221 | ✓ CORRECT | -29.0 | 0.281 |
| 2026-04-22 | — | ✗ WRONG | +11.2 | 0.221 | ✓ CORRECT | -30.7 | 0.281 |
OTHER DESKS
EUR/USD-0.14%
1.1602
GROWTH SURPRISE USD
" CONF"47%
"
"RATE DIFF"2.08
"COT PCT"74
"RVOL 20D"4.51
USD/INR-0.53%
95.6900
INR APPRECIATION MODERATE
" CONF"52%
"
"RATE DIFF"-2.76
"COT PCT"N/A
"RVOL 20D"5.95
REGIME HISTORY (7D)
2026-05-22RISK ON DOLLAR OFF52%
2026-05-21RISK ON DOLLAR OFF56%
2026-05-20RISK ON DOLLAR OFF56%
2026-05-19RISK ON DOLLAR OFF57%
2026-05-18RISK ON DOLLAR OFF59%
2026-05-17RISK ON DOLLAR OFF59%
2026-05-15RISK ON DOLLAR OFF59%
CONFIDENCE TREND (14D)
2026-05-04THRESHOLD: 55%2026-05-22
REGIME TIMELINE (30D)
2026-04-152026-05-22
STRENGTH
WEAKNESS
VOL
OTHER