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System integrity verified: 2026-05-25

Pipeline: UNKNOWNDQS: —

Track Record

Validation Archive

Live out-of-sample results and backtested regime validation.

Live Track Record·SINCE MAY 1, 2026·N = 34 CALLS·UPDATED 2026-05-22ACTIVE

T+5 BRIER

0.234

0.234 [0.206–0.261]

Fair calibration

n=34

T+5 WIN RATE

+14.7%

14.7% [6.4%–30.1%]

vs 50% random baseline

n=34

T+20 BRIER

—

— [0.000–0.000]

Awaiting T+5 validation

n=0

T+20 WIN RATE

—

—% [0.0%–0.0%]

Awaiting validation

n=0

Sample size note: 34 validated calls since May 2026. Statistical significance for win rate estimates typically requires ~200 calls. The Brier score is informative at smaller sample sizes — it measures calibration quality, not just directional accuracy.

Cumulative T+5 Log-Return (%)

Max DD: -1.2%
Equity Curve+3.8%+1.3%-1.2%2026-05-012026-05-052026-05-072026-05-102026-05-122026-05-142026-05-17
EUR/USD Accuracy History (30-Window)
0.0%BELOW BASELINE
Target55.0%EUR/USD expansion gate
GATE
45%50%55%60%
30-Day History
Accuracy Milestone Tracker
Days Above Gate0/11
Current Streak-11d
Best Window0.0%
Gap to Gate55.0pp

Rolling 10-Call Brier Score

Brier Score Time Series0.280.220.162026-05-012026-05-052026-05-072026-05-112026-05-142026-05-17

Accuracy by Regime Type · T5

PAIRRisk-OnRisk-OffTransitional
EUR/USD——
0.0% [0.0%–25.9%]n=11
USD/JPY—
0.0% [0.0%–39.0%]n=6
50.0% [18.8%–81.2%]n=6
USD/INR——
18.2% [5.1%–47.7%]n=11
ALL—
0.0% [0.0%–39.0%]n=6
17.9% [7.9%–35.6%]n=28

Accuracy by Regime Type · T20

PAIRRisk-OnRisk-OffTransitional
EUR/USD———
USD/JPY———
USD/INR———
ALL———

Per-Pair Breakdown

PAIRT+5 WINT+5 BRIERT+5 90DT+5 NT+20 WINT+20 BRIERT+20 90DT+20 N
EUR/USD+0.0%0.2030.0%n=11———n=0
USD/JPY+25.0%0.28125.0%n=12———n=0
USD/INR+18.2%0.21318.2%n=11———n=0
ALL+14.7%0.23414.7%n=34———n=0

Validation History — T+5 / T+20

DATEPAIRPREDT+5 RETT+5 OUTT+5 BRIERT+20 RETT+20 OUTT+20 BRIER
2026-05-17USD/JPYBEARISH+22.3WRONG0.346———
2026-05-17USD/INRBEARISH-35.7CORRECT0.281———
2026-05-17EUR/USDBEARISH-8.7WRONG0.221———
2026-05-15USD/JPYBEARISH+27.4WRONG0.343———
2026-05-15USD/INRBEARISH-24.5CORRECT0.281———
2026-05-15EUR/USDBEARISH-17.1WRONG0.221———
2026-05-14USD/JPYBEARISH+36.9WRONG0.342———
2026-05-14USD/INRBEARISH+51.1WRONG0.221———
2026-05-14EUR/USDBEARISH-37.5WRONG0.221———
2026-05-13USD/JPYBEARISH+67.1WRONG0.335———
2026-05-13USD/INRBEARISH+116.8WRONG0.221———
2026-05-13EUR/USDBEARISH-75.4WRONG0.221———
2026-05-12USD/JPYBEARISH+86.5WRONG0.336———
2026-05-12USD/INRBEARISH+93.6WRONG0.221———
2026-05-12EUR/USDBEARISH-112.1WRONG0.221———
2026-05-11USD/JPYBEARISH+102.7WRONG0.335———
2026-05-10USD/JPYBEARISH+120.7WRONG0.336———
2026-05-10USD/INRBEARISH+151.1WRONG0.221———
2026-05-10EUR/USDBEARISH-123.0WRONG0.221———
2026-05-08USD/JPYBEARISH+0.0NEUTRAL0.001———
2026-05-08USD/INRBULLISH+0.0NEUTRAL0.001———
2026-05-08EUR/USDNEUTRAL+0.0NEUTRAL0.001———
2026-05-07USD/JPYBEARISH+7.2WRONG0.221———
2026-05-07USD/INRBULLISH-14.6WRONG0.221———
2026-05-07EUR/USDBEARISH+35.9WRONG0.221———
2026-05-06USD/JPYBEARISH-67.2CORRECT0.281———
2026-05-06USD/INRBULLISH-75.2WRONG0.221———
2026-05-06EUR/USDBEARISH+62.9WRONG0.221———
2026-05-05USD/JPYBEARISH-36.5CORRECT0.281———
2026-05-05USD/INRBULLISH-83.2WRONG0.221———
2026-05-05EUR/USDBEARISH+83.2WRONG0.221———
2026-05-04USD/JPYNEUTRAL-14.4WRONG0.221———
2026-05-04USD/INRBULLISH-45.7WRONG0.221———
2026-05-04EUR/USDBEARISH+53.6WRONG0.221———
2026-05-01USD/JPYBEARISH-22.8CORRECT0.281———
2026-05-01USD/INRBULLISH-30.6WRONG0.221———
2026-05-01EUR/USDBEARISH+51.5WRONG0.221———

T+5 AND T+20 DIRECTIONAL OUTCOMES. RETURNS ARE LOG-RETURNS IN BASIS POINTS RELATIVE TO CALL DIRECTION. RESEARCH ONLY — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.