Track Record
Validation Archive
Live out-of-sample results and backtested regime validation.
Live Track Record·SINCE MAY 1, 2026·N = 196 CALLS·UPDATED 2026-10-06LIVE
Live out-of-sample: 196 directional calls since May 2026. Gross accuracy: +26.5%. Backtested history (1997–2026) accuracy: ~49%. See limitations.
Important: These metrics show gross returns before transaction costs. Typical FX spot bid-ask spreads are 0.1–1.0 bps for major FX and 5–20 bps for EM. Net returns may be substantially lower. Our accuracy is currently near random — we publish this openly as part of our research process. Full limitations →
T+5 NET WIN RATE
+3.8%
after 3.62 bps costs
n=52T+5 GROSS WIN RATE
+26.5%
before costs
n=196T+20 NET WIN RATE
+46.2%
after 3.39 bps costs
n=143T+20 GROSS WIN RATE
+46.2%
before costs
n=143T+5 BRIER (HEURISTIC)
0.237
0.237 [0.233–0.240]
Low consistency
n=196T+20 BRIER (HEURISTIC)
0.248
0.248 [0.243–0.253]
Low consistency
n=143T+5 AVG RETURN
-2.2 bps
avg log-return per call
n=196T+20 AVG RETURN
-56.2 bps
avg log-return per call
n=143Sample size note: 196 published calls since May 2026. Statistical significance for win rate estimates typically requires ~200 calls. The Brier score measures heuristic consistency — our confidence scores are not proper probabilities. See limitations.
Cumulative T+5 Log-Return (%)
Max DD: -33.0%EUR/USD Accuracy History (30-Window)
3.0%BELOW BASELINE
Target55.0%EUR/USD expansion gate
GATE
45%50%55%60%
30-Day History
Days Above Gate0/30
Current Streak-30d
Best Window0.0%
Gap to Gate52.0pp
Rolling 10-Call Brier Score (Heuristic)
Accuracy by Regime Type · T5
| PAIR | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Transitional |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | — | — | 3.0% [0.8%–10.4%]n=66 |
| USD/JPY | — | 46.5% [32.5%–61.1%]n=43 | 23.8% [10.6%–45.1%]n=21 |
| USD/INR | 0.0% [0.0%–49.0%]n=4 | 39.3% [23.6%–57.6%]n=28 | 41.2% [26.4%–57.8%]n=34 |
| ALL | 0.0% [0.0%–49.0%]n=4 | 43.7% [32.7%–55.2%]n=71 | 17.4% [11.6%–25.1%]n=121 |
Accuracy by Regime Type · T20
| PAIR | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Transitional |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | — | — | 2.1% [0.4%–10.9%]n=48 |
| USD/JPY | — | 88.1% [75.0%–94.8%]n=42 | 28.6% [8.2%–64.1%]n=7 |
| USD/INR | — | 76.9% [57.9%–89.0%]n=26 | 30.0% [14.5%–51.9%]n=20 |
| ALL | — | 83.8% [73.3%–90.7%]n=68 | 12.0% [6.4%–21.3%]n=75 |
Per-Pair Breakdown
| PAIR | T+5 WIN | T+5 BRIER | T+5 90D | T+5 N | T+20 WIN | T+20 BRIER | T+20 90D | T+20 N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +47.0% | 0.251 | 3.0% | n=5826 | +49.7% | 0.254 | 2.1% | n=5826 |
| USD/JPY | +47.5% | 0.250 | 39.1% | n=7611 | +47.8% | 0.250 | 79.6% | n=7611 |
| USD/INR | +49.4% | 0.250 | 37.9% | n=5772 | +55.3% | 0.253 | 56.5% | n=5772 |
| ALL | +26.5% | 0.237 | 26.5% | n=196 | +46.2% | 0.248 | 46.2% | n=143 |
Validation History — T+5 / T+20
| DATE | PAIR | PRED | T+5 RET | T+5 OUT | T+5 BRIER | T+20 RET | T+20 OUT | T+20 BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +55.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | USD/INR | BULLISH | +33.2 | WRONG | 0.252 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -77.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +34.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | USD/INR | BULLISH | +38.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -136.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +25.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | USD/INR | BULLISH | +35.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -111.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +36.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | USD/INR | BULLISH | +96.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -121.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -48.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +6.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -110.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -57.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +19.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -48.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -1.7 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +37.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -94.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -1.2 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +27.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -81.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +17.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -83.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -77.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +25.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -81.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -82.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +182.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +37.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -89.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +128.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | -40.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -76.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +139.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | -31.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -76.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +193.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | -12.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -73.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +222.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +99.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -94.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +213.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +40.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -98.8 | WRONG | 0.239 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +99.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +10.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -117.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +176.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +106.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -143.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +85.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +278.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-08 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +120.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +159.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-08 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -78.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -327.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-07 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +0.0 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | +227.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-07 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +141.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +194.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-07 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -69.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | -360.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-06 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -166.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +103.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-06 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +123.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +178.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-06 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -12.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | -315.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-04 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -169.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +101.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-04 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +123.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | +178.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-04 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -12.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -315.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-03 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -78.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +155.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-03 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +126.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | +181.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-03 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | -14.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -331.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-02 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -330.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -82.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-09-02 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +65.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | +151.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-02 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +41.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -226.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-01 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -396.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -174.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-09-01 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -11.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +114.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-09-01 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +32.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -218.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-31 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -342.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -150.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-31 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -65.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +89.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-31 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +9.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -214.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-30 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -244.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -179.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-30 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -100.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -17.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-30 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +21.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -173.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-28 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -240.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -175.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-28 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -111.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -29.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-28 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +26.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -167.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-27 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -233.3 | CORRECT | 0.279 | -30.0 | CORRECT | 0.279 |
| 2026-08-27 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -102.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +72.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-27 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -22.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -243.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-26 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -37.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -63.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-26 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -99.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +32.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-26 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -59.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -237.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-25 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +64.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -107.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-25 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +149.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +226.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-25 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -72.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -195.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-24 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +40.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | -108.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-24 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -63.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -1.2 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-24 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -43.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -176.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-23 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +73.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | -127.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-23 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -22.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +29.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-23 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -85.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | -171.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-21 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +69.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -131.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-21 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +35.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +87.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-21 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -81.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | -166.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-20 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +26.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -186.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-20 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -31.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +2.8 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-20 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -29.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | -183.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-19 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +71.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -120.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-19 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -6.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +66.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-19 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -16.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -178.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-18 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -28.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -276.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-18 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -239.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +18.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-18 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +84.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -34.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-17 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -22.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -323.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-17 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +3.0 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | +14.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-17 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +73.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -30.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-16 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -18.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -358.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-16 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -31.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +15.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-16 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +90.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +22.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-14 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -23.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -363.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-14 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -48.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -1.6 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-14 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +92.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +25.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-13 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -36.9 | CORRECT | 0.277 | -322.4 | CORRECT | 0.277 |
| 2026-08-13 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +38.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +30.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-13 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +132.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +66.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-12 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -73.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -370.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-12 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +15.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -24.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-12 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +126.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +91.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-11 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +22.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | -339.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-11 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +45.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -56.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-11 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +28.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +72.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-10 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +17.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -306.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-10 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +31.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -95.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-10 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +31.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +70.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-09 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +87.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -105.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-09 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +42.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -82.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-09 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +12.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +50.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-07 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +95.5 | WRONG | 0.224 | -98.1 | CORRECT | 0.278 |
| 2026-08-07 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +50.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | -74.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-07 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +9.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +47.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-06 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +67.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -177.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-06 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +9.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -86.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-06 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +8.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +89.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-05 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +100.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +60.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-05 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +28.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -62.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-05 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -25.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +25.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-04 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +97.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +155.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-04 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +29.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -15.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-04 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +9.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | +50.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-03 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +101.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | +138.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-03 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +6.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | -22.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-08-03 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +33.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | +95.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-02 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +14.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +155.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-02 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -27.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +9.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-08-02 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +12.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +33.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-31 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +14.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +155.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-31 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -27.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +9.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-31 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +26.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +47.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-30 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -69.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -12.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-30 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -39.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -22.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-30 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +0.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +112.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-29 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -351.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -253.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-29 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -68.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -31.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-29 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +77.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +162.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-28 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -379.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -288.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-28 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -52.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -217.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-28 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +127.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +250.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-27 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -386.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -288.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-27 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -46.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -5.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-27 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +120.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +259.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-26 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -376.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -290.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-26 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -121.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -147.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-26 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +116.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +245.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-24 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -390.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -304.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-24 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -103.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -129.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-24 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +137.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | +266.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-23 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -268.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -307.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-23 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -123.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -114.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-23 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +128.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +269.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-22 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +15.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | -309.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-22 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -86.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -110.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-22 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +49.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +228.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-21 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +40.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -219.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-21 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -77.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -54.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-21 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -15.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +150.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-20 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +77.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -189.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-20 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -74.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -82.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-20 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -41.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +145.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-19 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +81.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -200.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-19 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +11.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -69.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-19 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -49.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +123.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-17 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +88.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -192.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-17 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +8.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -72.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-17 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -58.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +115.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-16 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +90.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -180.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-16 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +23.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -130.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-16 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -60.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +77.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-15 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +58.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -177.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-15 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +6.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -120.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-15 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -51.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +50.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-14 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +57.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -184.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-14 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -8.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -109.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
T+5 AND T+20 DIRECTIONAL OUTCOMES. RETURNS ARE LOG-RETURNS IN BASIS POINTS RELATIVE TO CALL DIRECTION. RESEARCH ONLY — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.