Track Record
Validation Archive
Live out-of-sample results and backtested regime validation.
Live out-of-sample: 54 directional calls since May 2026. Gross accuracy: +27.8%. Backtested history (1997–2026) accuracy: ~49%. See limitations.
Important: These metrics show gross returns before transaction costs. Typical FX spot bid-ask spreads are 0.1–1.0 bps for major FX and 5–20 bps for EM. Net returns may be substantially lower. Our accuracy is currently near random — we publish this openly as part of our research process. Full limitations →
T+5 NET WIN RATE
+27.8%
after 4.6 bps costs
n=54T+5 GROSS WIN RATE
+27.8%
before costs
n=54T+20 NET WIN RATE
+75.0%
after 6.34 bps costs
n=8T+20 GROSS WIN RATE
+75.0%
before costs
n=8T+5 BRIER (HEURISTIC)
0.255
0.255 [0.243–0.267]
Low consistency
n=54T+20 BRIER (HEURISTIC)
0.248
0.248 [0.222–0.273]
Low consistency
n=8T+5 AVG RETURN
+1121.2 bps
avg log-return per call
n=54T+20 AVG RETURN
-24040.7 bps
avg log-return per call
n=8Sample size note: 54 published calls since May 2026. Statistical significance for win rate estimates typically requires ~200 calls. The Brier score measures heuristic consistency — our confidence scores are not proper probabilities. See limitations.
Cumulative T+5 Log-Return (%)
Max DD: -263.7%INSUFFICIENT DATA
Only 8 trading days available. Accuracy gate tracking requires at least 10 days.
Rolling 10-Call Brier Score (Heuristic)
Accuracy by Regime Type · T5
| PAIR | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Transitional |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 100.0% [20.7%–100.0%]n=1 | — | 28.6% [8.2%–64.1%]n=7 |
| USD/JPY | — | 6.7% [1.2%–29.8%]n=15 | 57.1% [25.0%–84.2%]n=7 |
| USD/INR | — | 80.0% [37.6%–96.4%]n=5 | 15.8% [5.5%–37.6%]n=19 |
| ALL | 100.0% [20.7%–100.0%]n=1 | 25.0% [11.2%–46.9%]n=20 | 27.3% [15.1%–44.2%]n=33 |
Accuracy by Regime Type · T20
| PAIR | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Transitional |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | — | — | 50.0% [9.5%–90.5%]n=2 |
| USD/JPY | — | 100.0% [20.7%–100.0%]n=1 | — |
| USD/INR | — | 75.0% [30.1%–95.4%]n=4 | 100.0% [20.7%–100.0%]n=1 |
| ALL | — | 80.0% [37.6%–96.4%]n=5 | 66.7% [20.8%–93.9%]n=3 |
Per-Pair Breakdown
| PAIR | T+5 WIN | T+5 BRIER | T+5 90D | T+5 N | T+20 WIN | T+20 BRIER | T+20 90D | T+20 N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +47.0% | 0.251 | 37.5% | n=5826 | +49.7% | 0.254 | 50.0% | n=5826 |
| USD/JPY | +47.5% | 0.250 | 22.7% | n=7611 | +47.8% | 0.250 | 100.0% | n=7611 |
| USD/INR | +49.4% | 0.250 | 29.2% | n=5772 | +55.3% | 0.253 | 80.0% | n=5772 |
| ALL | +27.8% | 0.255 | 27.8% | n=54 | +75.0% | 0.248 | 75.0% | n=8 |
Validation History — T+5 / T+20
| DATE | PAIR | PRED | T+5 RET | T+5 OUT | T+5 BRIER | T+20 RET | T+20 OUT | T+20 BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -33.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +70.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -10.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +8.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +85.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +19.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -26.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +23.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +43.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -22.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +289.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +46.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -21.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +118.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +53.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +49.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +102.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +21.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-25 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +44018.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -155.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-24 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +44127.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -159.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-22 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -13.1 | CORRECT | 0.226 | -44300.1 | CORRECT | 0.226 |
| 2026-05-21 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -5033.4 | CORRECT | 0.189 | -49278.0 | CORRECT | 0.189 |
| 2026-05-21 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -5033.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -49278.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-21 | EUR/USD | BEARISH | -5033.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -49278.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-20 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +28.2 | WRONG | 0.319 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -5057.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +86.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-05-20 | EUR/USD | BEARISH | -5057.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +86.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-05-19 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +18.1 | WRONG | 0.319 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -1071.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +5.5 | WRONG | 0.344 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -106.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-17 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +22.3 | WRONG | 0.346 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-17 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -35.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +27.4 | WRONG | 0.343 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -24.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +36.9 | WRONG | 0.342 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +51.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-13 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +67.1 | WRONG | 0.335 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-13 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +116.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +86.5 | WRONG | 0.336 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +93.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +102.7 | WRONG | 0.335 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +120.7 | WRONG | 0.336 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +151.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +0.0 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | USD/INR | BULLISH | +0.0 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +7.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -14.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -67.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -75.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -36.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -83.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -14.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -45.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -22.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -30.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
T+5 AND T+20 DIRECTIONAL OUTCOMES. RETURNS ARE LOG-RETURNS IN BASIS POINTS RELATIVE TO CALL DIRECTION. RESEARCH ONLY — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.