Track Record
Validation Archive
Live out-of-sample results and backtested regime validation.
Live Track Record·SINCE MAY 1, 2026·N = 172 CALLS·UPDATED 2026-08-21ACTIVE
Live out-of-sample: 172 directional calls since May 2026. Gross accuracy: +28.5%. Backtested history (1997–2026) accuracy: ~49%. See limitations.
Important: These metrics show gross returns before transaction costs. Typical FX spot bid-ask spreads are 0.1–1.0 bps for major FX and 5–20 bps for EM. Net returns may be substantially lower. Our accuracy is currently near random — we publish this openly as part of our research process. Full limitations →
T+5 NET WIN RATE
+34.4%
after 4.16 bps costs
n=90T+5 GROSS WIN RATE
+28.5%
before costs
n=172T+20 NET WIN RATE
+54.3%
after 3.75 bps costs
n=92T+20 GROSS WIN RATE
+54.3%
before costs
n=92T+5 BRIER (HEURISTIC)
0.244
0.244 [0.239–0.249]
Low consistency
n=172T+20 BRIER (HEURISTIC)
0.250
0.250 [0.244–0.256]
Low consistency
n=92T+5 AVG RETURN
+673.8 bps
avg log-return per call
n=172T+20 AVG RETURN
-2108.5 bps
avg log-return per call
n=92Sample size note: 172 published calls since May 2026. Statistical significance for win rate estimates typically requires ~200 calls. The Brier score measures heuristic consistency — our confidence scores are not proper probabilities. See limitations.
Cumulative T+5 Log-Return (%)
Max DD: -263.7%EUR/USD Accuracy History (30-Window)
16.7%BELOW BASELINE
Target55.0%EUR/USD expansion gate
GATE
45%50%55%60%
30-Day History
Days Above Gate0/30
Current Streak-30d
Best Window30.0%
Gap to Gate38.3pp
Rolling 10-Call Brier Score (Heuristic)
Accuracy by Regime Type · T5
| PAIR | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Transitional |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 50.0% [9.5%–90.5%]n=2 | — | 15.2% [7.6%–28.2%]n=46 |
| USD/JPY | — | 25.5% [15.5%–38.9%]n=51 | 55.6% [26.7%–81.1%]n=9 |
| USD/INR | — | 42.4% [27.2%–59.2%]n=33 | 29.0% [16.1%–46.6%]n=31 |
| ALL | 50.0% [9.5%–90.5%]n=2 | 32.1% [23.1%–42.7%]n=84 | 24.4% [16.6%–34.5%]n=86 |
Accuracy by Regime Type · T20
| PAIR | Risk-On | Risk-Off | Transitional |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 50.0% [9.5%–90.5%]n=2 | — | 17.9% [7.9%–35.6%]n=28 |
| USD/JPY | — | 84.0% [65.3%–93.6%]n=25 | 25.0% [4.6%–69.9%]n=4 |
| USD/INR | — | 94.4% [74.2%–99.0%]n=18 | 33.3% [15.2%–58.3%]n=15 |
| ALL | 50.0% [9.5%–90.5%]n=2 | 88.4% [75.5%–94.9%]n=43 | 23.4% [13.6%–37.2%]n=47 |
Per-Pair Breakdown
| PAIR | T+5 WIN | T+5 BRIER | T+5 90D | T+5 N | T+20 WIN | T+20 BRIER | T+20 90D | T+20 N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +47.0% | 0.251 | 16.7% | n=5826 | +49.7% | 0.254 | 20.0% | n=5826 |
| USD/JPY | +47.5% | 0.250 | 29.2% | n=7611 | +47.8% | 0.250 | 75.9% | n=7611 |
| USD/INR | +49.4% | 0.250 | 39.6% | n=5772 | +55.3% | 0.253 | 66.7% | n=5772 |
| ALL | +28.5% | 0.244 | 28.9% | n=172 | +54.3% | 0.250 | 54.3% | n=92 |
Validation History — T+5 / T+20
| DATE | PAIR | PRED | T+5 RET | T+5 OUT | T+5 BRIER | T+20 RET | T+20 OUT | T+20 BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -18.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -31.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +90.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -23.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -48.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +92.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -36.9 | CORRECT | 0.277 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +38.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +132.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -73.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +15.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +126.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +22.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +45.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +28.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +17.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +31.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +31.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +87.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +42.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +12.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +95.5 | WRONG | 0.224 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +50.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +9.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +67.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +9.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +8.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +100.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +28.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -25.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +97.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +29.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +9.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +101.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +6.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +33.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +14.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -27.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +12.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +14.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -27.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +26.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -69.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -39.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +0.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -351.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -68.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +77.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -379.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -52.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +127.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -386.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -46.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +120.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -376.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -290.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-26 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -121.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -147.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-26 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +116.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +245.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-24 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -390.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -304.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-24 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -103.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -129.9 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-24 | EUR/USD | BULLISH | +137.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | +266.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-23 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -268.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -307.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-23 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -123.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -114.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-23 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +128.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +269.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-22 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +15.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | -309.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-22 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -86.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -110.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-22 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +49.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +228.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-21 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +40.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -219.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-21 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -77.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -54.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-21 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -15.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +150.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-20 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +77.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -189.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-20 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -74.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -82.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-20 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -41.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +145.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-19 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +81.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -200.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-19 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +11.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -69.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-19 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -49.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | +123.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-17 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +88.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -192.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-17 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +8.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | -72.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-17 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -58.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +115.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-16 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +90.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -180.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-16 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +23.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -130.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-16 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -60.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +77.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-15 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +58.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -177.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-15 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +6.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -120.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-15 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -51.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | +50.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-14 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +57.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -184.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-14 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -8.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -109.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-14 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -18.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +103.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-13 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +4.1 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | -203.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-13 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +19.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | -94.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-13 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +28.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +141.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-12 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +31.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -255.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-12 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +103.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | -19.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-12 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +28.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +134.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-10 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +43.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -244.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-10 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +98.0 | WRONG | 0.221 | -24.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-10 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +22.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | +128.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-09 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +0.7 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | -246.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-09 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +131.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | -8.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-09 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +10.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | +79.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-08 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -22.1 | CORRECT | 0.262 | -299.7 | CORRECT | 0.262 |
| 2026-07-08 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +66.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | -82.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-08 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +42.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | +118.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-07 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +8.6 | WRONG | 0.264 | -273.3 | CORRECT | 0.237 |
| 2026-07-07 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +86.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -52.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-07 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +20.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +113.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-06 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +20.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | -284.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-06 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +72.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -28.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-06 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -50.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +57.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-05 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +14.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -243.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-07-05 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +16.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | +19.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-05 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -22.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +79.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-03 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +19.8 | WRONG | 0.265 | -238.3 | CORRECT | 0.235 |
| 2026-07-03 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +83.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | +86.4 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-03 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -20.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +81.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-02 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +56.5 | WRONG | 0.261 | -121.3 | CORRECT | 0.239 |
| 2026-07-02 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -14.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +16.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-02 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +9.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | +87.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-01 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -1.3 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +50.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-01 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +46.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +32.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-07-01 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +37.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +77.9 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-30 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -33.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | +73.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-30 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +70.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | +71.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-30 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | -10.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -23.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-06-29 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +8.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +110.5 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-29 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +85.4 | WRONG | 0.221 | +103.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-29 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +19.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -44.1 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-06-28 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -26.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | +126.1 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-28 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +23.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +213.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-28 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +43.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | -12.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-06-26 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -22.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | +129.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-26 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +289.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | +479.8 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-26 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +46.3 | WRONG | 0.221 | -9.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-06-25 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -21.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +125.7 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-25 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +118.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +259.0 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-25 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +53.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | +13.3 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-24 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | +49.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | +84.2 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-24 | USD/INR | NEUTRAL | +102.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | +221.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-06-24 | EUR/USD | NEUTRAL | +21.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | +50.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-05-25 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +44018.5 | WRONG | 0.221 | -155.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-24 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +44127.9 | WRONG | 0.221 | -159.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-22 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -13.1 | CORRECT | 0.226 | -44300.1 | CORRECT | 0.226 |
| 2026-05-21 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -5033.4 | CORRECT | 0.189 | -49278.0 | CORRECT | 0.189 |
| 2026-05-21 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -5033.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -49278.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-21 | EUR/USD | BEARISH | -5033.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | -49278.0 | CORRECT | 0.281 |
| 2026-05-20 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +28.2 | WRONG | 0.319 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -5057.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +86.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-05-20 | EUR/USD | BEARISH | -5057.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | +86.6 | WRONG | 0.221 |
| 2026-05-19 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +18.1 | WRONG | 0.319 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -1071.6 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +5.5 | WRONG | 0.344 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -106.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-17 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +22.3 | WRONG | 0.346 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-17 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -35.7 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +27.4 | WRONG | 0.343 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | USD/INR | BEARISH | -24.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +36.9 | WRONG | 0.342 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +51.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-13 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +67.1 | WRONG | 0.335 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-13 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +116.8 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +86.5 | WRONG | 0.336 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +93.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +102.7 | WRONG | 0.335 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +120.7 | WRONG | 0.336 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | USD/INR | BEARISH | +151.1 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +0.0 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | USD/INR | BULLISH | +0.0 | NEUTRAL | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | +7.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -14.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -67.2 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -75.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -36.5 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -83.2 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | USD/JPY | NEUTRAL | -14.4 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -45.7 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | USD/JPY | BEARISH | -22.8 | CORRECT | 0.281 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | USD/INR | BULLISH | -30.6 | WRONG | 0.221 | — | — | — |
T+5 AND T+20 DIRECTIONAL OUTCOMES. RETURNS ARE LOG-RETURNS IN BASIS POINTS RELATIVE TO CALL DIRECTION. RESEARCH ONLY — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.